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Kevin Finn
Kevin Finn
San Francisco, CA
jefe
jefe
hermosa beach, CA
Trefethen Vineyards
Trefethen Vineyards
Napa Valley
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Mar. 01, 2010
Recently I have been re-reading a great book: The Long Tail by Chris Anderson. The author provides a fantastic explanation of demand curves that extend (almost infinitely) outwards. Graphically, these demand curves look similar to probability distribution curves – hence the name the “Long Tail”. The book touches on the evolution of societal, logistical, and economic issues that have enabled companies to supply goods or services to the long tail of demand.

The book is engaging, but I have one problem with it. My progress is proceeding at a snail’s pace. Why? Because every few pages the Chris Anderson points out an aspect of the Long Tail that makes me pause for a moment as I ponder how it will affect the wine industry.

The thought that I am currently considering is the fragmentation of the audience that flocks to wine publications such as The Wine Spectator or The Wine Advocate. I am not discrediting their clout, but I do see their influence being diminished in the long-term. This will be the result of two key trends.

The first trend is how people interact with media content. We have witnessed a huge move from off-line to online media consumption. You can observe this tidal shift by simply looking at the trend in print newspaper circulation.

As people move their media consumption online, it augments the way they find information that interests them. It is less of a passive tops-down approach, but more of an active search for information. My active approach to music consumption is a perfect example. I don’t watch MTV anymore, waiting for the next big thing. Instead, I use online aggregators to find songs that appeal to me. Hypem.com is an example of such an aggregator. (If you don’t use this site you have to check it out!)

I am not alone in my “search” for music or information online. Google figured this out years ago, and that is why it is focused on “organizing the world's information and making it universally accessible and useful.” Every day, millions (maybe billions, I’m not sure) use Google’s search engine to sift through its aggregated data pile to find something interesting. When one wants to learn about a new wine, who better to ask than Google?

And who is there to answer? Wine bloggers. This is the second trend that will lower the pulpit of the Robert Parkers of the world. The collective voice of wine bloggers has been enabled by a key point raised by The Long Tail. Chris Anderson highlights the importance of the decreased costs associated with production in today’s world. Blogging software (such as Six Apart’s TypePad) has lowered the barriers to entry, and allowed amateur wine enthusiasts try their hand in the publishing world. As many wine enthusiasts take up wine blogging, collectively they are creating a “content explosion”.

The mushroom cloud of content is filling all of the long-tail niches related to wine. Interested in cheap wine? Read Good Wine Under $20. Interested in Spanish wine? Read CataVino. And the list goes on and on. Combine Google and RSS Readers with this content and poof! There goes the captive audience of large wine publications. I’m not saying that those publications will disappear. I’m just saying that they aren’t the only act in town anymore (especially if they don’t open up their walled gardens of online content).

Wine bloggers realize this opportunity and they are capitalizing on it by organizing and institutionalizing themselves. One such example is the Wine Blogger’s Conference. During the three-day symposium, wine bloggers swap tips and advice about generating an engaging mountain of wine blog content. Another example of this coordinated effort is the American Wine Blog Awards, which were started by Tom Wark at Fermentation. I think of the event as an “Oscars meets American Idol event”, where nominees are selected by the panel and voted on by the masses. If you visit the website of winning blogs, they proudly display their honor. (One example is Good Grape: A Wine Manifesto, by Jeff Lefevere.)

Over time, I suspect the work of hundreds of part-time wine bloggers will over power the work of a dedicated few wine journals. Google search results will reach out into the long-tail niches of content provided by bloggers, and provide the active consumer with the information that he or she desires. Maybe I will be proven wrong, but if the number of blog search results is any indication, I think the large wine publications will succumb to a long slide in circulation similar to the slide currently underway at print news publications.
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